What are the top 10 trends for the next ten years? Download the report here.
August 12, 2022
Are cognitive biases bad?
No. We need cognitive biases.
Our brain developed these biases, AKA shortcuts, to prevent us from becoming overwhelmed and paralyzed by life.
Buster Benson has thought deeply about cognitive biases. His insight? There are four primary reasons humans developed cognitive biases. Each reason is correlated to one quadrant of the codex, illustrated above:
1. There's too much information to ingest and make sense of, so we ignore most of it. This includes 42 biases, in the upper-right quadrant (blue-green).
2. We can't make meaning of everything, so we fill in gaps, bolt different ideas together, and voila, we understand the world. This includes a whopping 63 biases in the lower-right (blue) quadrant.
3. We need to act fast, so we make judgment calls. This includes 52 biases, in the lower-left quadrant (green).
4. Our brains aren't big enough to remember everything, and generalizations take up less room. This includes 31 biases in the upper-left (gray) corner.
That's 188 discreet biases that humans' brains have developed to help them navigate the world. (Thank you, brain.)
And yet...futurists must be aware of their biases so they can see the world - and plausible futures - clearly.
Read Buster's excellent blog about how he developed the Codex
Check out Wikipedia's list of Cognitive Biases
Play with this interactive Wikipedia Cognitive Bias Codex
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Rebecca Ryan, APF, FRSA
Rebecca is a human spark plug. Her enthusiasm to create bold, inspiring futures is contagious. She's an economist and top-50 professional futurist. She's been named "Communicator of the Year" by Women in Communication, "Entrepreneur of the Year" by the U.S. Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship and has served as Resident Futurist at the Alliance for Innovation, the Association of Government Risk Pools, the Greater Omaha Chamber, and the Local Government Institute of Wisconsin. She's a keynote speaker, author and consultant with distinctions from the Association of Professional Futurists and the Royal Society of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. Rebecca's collaborative, creative approach to shaping the future has been trusted by leaders from over 200 communities, touching one in five Americans. Contact Lisa Loniello for Rebecca's keynote fee and availability.
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